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Today 10:30Price: 46.90
BellNippleBear121 posts
RE: First Oil

Extrader, I remember DANA well , I remember Tom digging his heels in and refusing the first bid from the Koreans , but a lot of that was posturing and Tom was also offered a position in the new set up but declined . Tom took a couple of days off and then set up his new Company within a week of the TO going through . IMO that was a fair offer that shareholders eventually received . I would welcome the Koreans , Chinese , even the French if they want to get involved but think that this will be a consortium led by BP , Shell , Chevron or Statoil - possibly a few others .
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Today 00:54Price: 46.90
JayKay1386 posts
RE: First Oil

Many thanks Joe...
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Today 00:32Price: 46.90
extrader448 posts
RE: First Oil

Hi BellNipple Bear,

"You won't see a hostile takeover here, because of the (II) shareholder base....."

Tom Cross over at Dana Petroleum (DNX) thought the same, IIRC, and was mightily /bitterly surprised when the short-termist II's (who'd had a weak few months, as I remember) decided to book a quick profit....and sold him out.

Not saying it's likely here, but wouldn't rule it / anything out.

ATB
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Today 00:24Price: 46.90
JoeSoap1,276 posts
RE: First Oil

I would suggest that as it is a constant, it is a discount to prevailing Brent.
The Lancaster CPR has this on page 60:
"RPS recommends that a number of additional discounts be applied to Lancaster crude on top of the
quality discount to allow for discounts relating to a new crude, TAN, and sulphur content. RPS has
applied a total discount to Brent of -$4.5/bbl for Lancaster crude in the first year of production,
followed by a total discount of -$4.0/bbl for all subsequent years. The Lancaster Base Price forecast
in MOD, assuming first oil production in January 2019, is shown in Table 9.3 with Low and High Price
cases for valuation sensitivities."

I would expect all costs of sales to come from revenue, be they for transport or incentive. The BPInt incentive may result in a higher revenue, but the presentation is 'for guidance'.

joe
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Fri 22:42Price: 46.90
JayKay1386 posts
RE: First Oil

Didn't get any takers first time around, but what are people’s views on the fixed $27m / $4.40 pb differential in 17K x $50/60/70 pb oil in the (full year, 2nd table) revenue figures in the AGM presentation (page 21)?

Genuinely interested in others thoughts…
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Fri 22:37Price: 46.90
pijoe12125,642 posts
RE: First Oil

I think you would be mad to go against the recommendations of the BoD and Kerogen in such a situation.

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given kero % of the shares ..could you explain just how a class 1 transaction could be passed by an EGM?

i would accept it is mathematically possible ...but in all reality? kero control the show in my view . good also in my view..(wonch of bankers from the start...?!!!!)
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Fri 21:30Price: 46.90
JayKay1386 posts
RE: First Oil

There's me thinking we were having a friendly chat ;o)

I get the FPSO bit, but based on discussions around the time, the feeling I got (which of course may be totally wrong) is that the bulk of the risk on cost over runs for the AM sat with BW not HUR, therefore this would of been taken account of in terms of the level of contingency during the fund raise...

Building in enough to fund two drills 2019 in case of lack of free cash flow from FOIL isn't something I've factored into the fund raise contingency, but maybe it's somethng the BOD have...
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Fri 21:26Price: 46.90
WhichWayNow241 posts
RE: First Oil

I think it was $322m in lump sum and $107m reimbursables. Transferring the risk was part of the company philosophy which usually means a higher fixed fee with less need for contingency. The reinburables cover everything from SURF to Hur project management.

I'm uncertain how much contingency will be released by early foil.
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Fri 21:18Price: 46.90
Ricfle2,518 posts
RE: First Oil

JayKay1

We are all entitled to our own opinion.

We are taking about an old FPSO. We are talking about the weather risk WoS, what happens if the wind blows for 12 weeks so nothing happens?

A simple highways projection in the home counties, with out all these problems, can over run by 50%, so why is this contingency so wrong?
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Fri 21:14Price: 46.90
JayKay1386 posts
RE: First Oil

But the bulk of the cost was the AM, and my reading of things was that they de-risked that in terms of cost over runs with regard to the contract (mostly fixed cost) with BW as owner / operator, so there wouldn't be a need for such contingency levels?
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